{"id":11468,"date":"2017-07-27T08:55:26","date_gmt":"2017-07-27T08:55:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/oradeo.com\/?p=11468"},"modified":"2017-07-27T08:55:26","modified_gmt":"2017-07-27T08:55:26","slug":"hard-brexit-could-leave-e600m-hole-in-government-finances","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/oradeo.com\/2017\/07\/27\/hard-brexit-could-leave-e600m-hole-in-government-finances\/","title":{"rendered":"Hard Brexit could leave \u20ac600m hole in Government finances"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"responsive-img\" style=\"font-size: 16px;\" title=\"No to Brexit: a remain sign in Northern Ireland. A hard Brexit is expected to result in higher prices in the Republic, as UK multinationals pass on the cost of a weaker pound to consumers. Photograph: Paul Faith\/AFP\/Getty\" src=\"https:\/\/www.irishtimes.com\/polopoly_fs\/1.3128412.1498077714!\/image\/image.jpg_gen\/derivatives\/box_620_330\/image.jpg\" alt=\"No to Brexit: a remain sign in Northern Ireland. A hard Brexit is expected to result in higher prices in the Republic, as UK multinationals pass on the cost of a weaker pound to consumers. Photograph: Paul Faith\/AFP\/Getty\" width=\"620\" height=\"330\" data-tablet=\"box_620_330\" data-desktop=\"box_620_330\" data-mobile=\"box_300_160\" \/><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.irishtimes.com\/business\/economy\/hard-brexit-could-leave-600m-hole-in-government-finances-1.3128431\">Source<br \/>\n<\/a>Photograph: Paul Faith\/AFP\/Getty<\/p>\n<p>No to Brexit: a remain sign in Northern Ireland. A hard Brexit is expected to result in higher prices in the Republic, as UK multinationals pass on the cost of a weaker pound to consumers.<br \/>\nThe Government will have \u20ac600 million less for spending and for tax cuts in the event of a hard\u00a0Brexit, the\u00a0Economic and Social Research Institute\u00a0has warned.<\/p>\n<p>In its latest economic outlook the think tank calculated the impact of the United Kingdom\u2019s departure from the European Union on the growth potential of the Irish economy, which in turn governs the level of government spending allowed under EU rules.<\/p>\n<p>It found that a hard Brexit would reduce the fiscal space available to the Government by at least \u20ac200 million a year for the first three years after the UK leaves the bloc, in 2019.<\/p>\n<h4 class=\"crosshead\">European summit<\/h4>\n<p class=\"no_name selectionShareable\">The ESRI\u2019s intervention comes as Taoiseach Leo Varadkar travels to his first European summit in Brussels today. Although Brexit is not on the official agenda for the two-day meeting of the European Council \u2013 the EU\u2019s highest decision-making body, made up of the heads of EU governments \u2013 the issue is likely to dominate the informal exchanges between leaders.<\/p>\n<p class=\"no_name selectionShareable\">The Taoiseach is expected to have a number of meetings with his EU counterparts, including one scheduled with the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, tomorrow morning. Brussels insiders said the summit was an important opportunity for Varadkar to build relationships with other leaders. He will also meet the European Council president, Donald Tusk.<\/p>\n<p class=\"no_name selectionShareable\">Officials said the Taoiseach expected to discuss Brexit-related issues with a number of European leaders on the fringes of the summit today and tomorrow. He has already spoken with several of them by telephone.<\/p>\n<p class=\"no_name selectionShareable\">They added that Mr Varadkar will stress the need for Brexit talks to progress quickly so that their second phase \u2013 on the future relationship between the EU and the UK, which will have a huge bearing on the future of the Border \u2013 can begin later this year.<\/p>\n<p class=\"no_name selectionShareable\">At the leaders\u2019 dinner this evening the British prime minister, Theresa May, is expected to give her fellow heads of government a summary of UK expectations for the talks, which got under way earlier this week.<\/p>\n<h4 class=\"crosshead\">Job market<\/h4>\n<p class=\"no_name selectionShareable\">Kieran McQuinn of the ESRI said the main impact of Brexit would be through the job market, in the form of lower employment growth and marginally higher unemployment. He also suggested that the institute\u2019s estimate of the financial loss to the Republic of Ireland could be on the conservative side, as it failed to take account of Brexit\u2019s impact on international supply chains and consumer spending.<\/p>\n<p class=\"no_name selectionShareable\">A hard Brexit, which would see the UK leave both the single market and the customs union, is expected to result in higher prices here, as UK multinationals pass on the cost of a weaker pound to consumers. \u201cSo you could argue the estimate we\u2019re coming up with here is potentially lower bound in terms of what the true implication would be,\u201d Prof McQuinn said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"no_name selectionShareable\">In its economic commentary the ESRI warned that the substantial risk posed to the economy by Brexit had coincided with a marked softening of tax revenue this year, which had implications for the upcoming budget in terms of limiting the scope for spending and for tax cuts.<\/p>\n<p class=\"no_name selectionShareable\">The warning comes amid speculation that Mr Varadkar may jettison Fine Gael\u2019s long-standing policy of abolishing the universal social charge.<\/p>\n<p class=\"no_name selectionShareable\">Apart from VAT receipts, most other tax headings either display weak growth or substantial declines in monthly returns, it said.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Source Photograph: Paul Faith\/AFP\/Getty No to Brexit: a remain sign in Northern Ireland. A hard Brexit is expected to result in higher prices in the Republic, as UK multinationals pass&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":22,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-11468","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-blog"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v24.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Hard Brexit could leave \u20ac600m hole in Government finances | Oradeo<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"| Hard Brexit could leave \u20ac600m hole in Government finances\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, 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